EIA Raises USA Oil Production Forecast for 2026, 2027
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its U.S. crude oil production forecast for 2026 and 2027 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month.
According to its June STEO, the EIA now sees U.S. crude oil output, including lease condensate, averaging 13.72 million barrels per day in 2026 and 14.15 million barrels per day in 2027. In its previous STEO, which was released in May, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, would come in at 13.65 million barrels per day this year and 14.10 million barrels per day next year.
“Rising crude oil prices drive crude oil production higher in our forecast,” the EIA said in its latest STEO, which projected that the Brent spot price will rise from an average of $69.04 per barrel in 2025 to $95.39 per barrel in 2026 and that the WTI spot price will increase from an average of $65.40 per barrel last year to an average of $88.32 per barrel this year.
U.S. crude oil production has never averaged 14 million barrels per day or above annually, or even monthly, according to EIA figures. The country’s oil output has averaged 13 million barrels per day on two occasions annually, and on multiple occasions monthly, EIA figures highlighted.
A data page on the EIA site displaying annual U.S. field production of crude oil - which was last updated on May 29 and includes data from 1859 to 2025 - showed that the highest average annual U.S. field production of crude oil figure was seen in 2025, at 13.586 million barrels per day. Before this, annual U.S. field production of crude oil had only averaged 13 million barrels per day in one other year - 2024, at 13.235 million barrels per day - the EIA data revealed.
A data page on the EIA website displaying monthly U.S. field production of crude oil - which was also last updated on May 29 and includes data from January 1920 to March 2026 - showed that the highest average monthly U.S. field production of crude oil figure was seen in October 2025, at 13.864 million barrels per day.
The second highest figure was seen in September 2025, at 13.828 million barrels per day, and the third highest figure came in August 2025, at 13.810 million barrels per day, according to the data page.
Monthly U.S. field output of crude oil has averaged 13 million barrels per day on 30 occasions, the data page showed. Three of these were seen in 2026, 12 were seen in 2025, 11 came in 2024, and four came in 2023, the data page highlighted.
In its June STEO, the EIA projected that Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, will contribute 11.30 million barrels per day to the total projected figure of 13.72 million barrels per day for U.S. crude oil production in 2026.
The Federal Gulf of America is expected to contribute 1.98 million barrels per day and Alaska is expected to contribute 0.45 million barrels per day, the STEO showed.
Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, are expected to make up 11.79 million barrels per day of the total projected figure of 14.15 million barrels per day for 2027, the STEO highlighted. The Federal Gulf of America contributes 1.86 million barrels per day, and Alaska makes up 0.50 million barrels per day, the STEO projected.
The EIA’s June STEO showed that total U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.59 million barrels per day in 2025. Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, made up 11.27 million barrels per day of that total figure, the Federal Gulf of America made up 1.90 million barrels per day, and Alaska made up 0.42 million barrels per day, the STEO highlighted.
A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO projected that total U.S. crude oil output, including lease condensate, will average 13.73 million barrels per day in the second quarter of this year, 13.77 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 13.83 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 13.94 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 14.15 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 14.18 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 14.33 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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