EIA Sees USA Energy Demand Dropping in 2026, Rising in 2027
In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that U.S. total energy consumption will decrease in 2026 then rise in 2027.
According to its latest STEO, the EIA sees U.S. total energy consumption coming in at 95.77 quadrillion British thermal units (qBtu) this year and 97.02 qBtu next year. In 2025, U.S. total energy consumption hit 96.21 qBtu, the STEO showed.
A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO projected that U.S. total energy consumption will come in at 22.16 qBtu in the second quarter of this year, 24.24 qBtu in the third quarter, 24.34 qBtu in the fourth quarter, 25.14 qBtu in the first quarter of next year, 22.76 qBtu in the second quarter, 24.56 qBtu in the third quarter, and 24.56 qBtu again in the fourth quarter of 2027.
The EIA’s June STEO showed that total energy demand was 25.41 qBtu in the first quarter of 2025, 22.42 qBtu in the second quarter, 24.05 qBtu in the third quarter, 24.32 qBtu in the fourth quarter, and 25.04 qBtu in the first quarter of 2026.
Liquid Fuels, Natural Gas Consumption
In its latest STEO, the EIA projected that U.S. liquid fuels consumption will increase in both 2026 and 2027.
According to the EIA’s June STEO, the EIA sees U.S. liquid fuels averaging 20.68 million barrels per day in 2026 and 20.73 million barrels per day in 2027. This demand came in at 20.61 million barrels per day in 2025, the STEO showed.
The STEO projected that U.S. liquid fuels consumption will average 20.51 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 20.85 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 20.65 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 20.50 million barrel per day in the first quarter of 2027, 20.78 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 20.92 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 20.72 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2027.
The EIA forecast in its June STEO that U.S. natural gas consumption will also rise in both 2026 and 2027.
In its STEO, the EIA projected that U.S. natural gas demand will average 92.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 95.0 billion cubic feet per day in 2027. This demand came in at 91.9 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, the STEO showed.
A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO projected that U.S. natural gas consumption will average 77.4 billion cubic feet in the second quarter, 87.2 billion cubic feet in the third quarter, 96.5 billion cubic feet in the fourth quarter, 110.0 billion cubic feet in the first quarter of next year, 81.1 billion cubic feet in the second quarter, 90.0 billion cubic feet in the third quarter, and 98.9 billion cubic feet in the fourth quarter of 2027.
Renewables, Coal Demand
U.S. renewables consumption is also projected to rise in both 2026 and 2027 in the EIA’s latest STEO.
In its June STEO, the EIA forecasts that U.S. renewables demand will come in at 9.42 qBtu in 2026 and 10.04 qBtu in 2027. In 2025, this demand came in at 8.78 qBtu, the STEO highlighted.
The EIA projected in its latest STEO that U.S. renewables consumption will come in at 2.44 qBtu in the second quarter, 2.39 qBtu in the third quarter, 2.34 qBtu in the fourth quarter, 2.42 qBtu in the first quarter of next year, 2.64 qBtu in the second quarter, 2.53 qBtu in the third quarter, and 2.45 qBtu in the fourth quarter of 2027.
U.S. coal consumption is projected to drop in both 2026 and 2027 in the EIA’s June STEO.
This STEO sees U.S. coal demand dropping from 452 million short tons in 2025 to 419 million short tons in 2026 and 403 million short tons in 2027. The STEO projected that U.S. coal demand will come in at 88 million short tons in the second quarter, 125 million short tons in the third quarter, 101 million short tons in the fourth quarter, 97 million short tons in the first quarter of 2027, 88 million short tons in the second quarter, 121 million short tons in the third quarter, and 97 million short tons in the fourth quarter of 2027.
The EIA noted in its STEO that renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy. The EIA added in the STEO that it does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy.
In a note related to its coal demand figures, the EIA stated in its STEO that total consumption includes Independent Power Producer consumption. In a note related to its total energy consumption figures, the EIA said in its latest STEO that the conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIA’s Monthly Energy Review (MER).
The EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment, the EIA states on its website.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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