UAE Tells OPEC Its Oil Production Surged Last Month
The United Arab Emirates informed OPEC that its oil production surged by 80% last month as Abu Dhabi found workarounds for the Iran war and was free to pump more barrels after leaving the producer group.
The UAE told the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries that it pumped 3.8 million barrels a day of crude in June, according to a monthly report seen by Bloomberg on Monday. That’s an increase of 1.71 million barrels a day from May.
The June figure precedes the latest flare-up in hostilities between the US and Iran and any impact that might have had on flows from the Persian Gulf. The International Energy Agency in Paris — which advises consumer governments — already estimated last week that the UAE’s crude production rose by 900,000 barrels a day in June to an all-time high of 4.1 million a day.
The gusher reflects both Abu Dhabi’s decision to leave OPEC at the beginning of May following years of frustration with the group’s output limits, and its success in stealthily moving cargoes out the Strait of Hormuz despite disruption during the conflict. The cargo surge helped create a supply surplus in Asia that’s caused the OPEC leader Saudi Arabia to offer rare discounts for its barrels.
The report on Monday from OPEC’s Vienna-based secretariat continued to include data for the UAE in the group’s total output even after Abu Dhabi announced that its decision to leave took effect on May 1.
Despite that departure, OPEC’s statues say the departure of a member formally occurs at the start of the next calendar year, offering an explanation for why it’s still publishing and receiving output estimates for the UAE.
Before quitting OPEC, assessments for the UAE’s output had been a source of contention, with estimates for it varying widely.
OPEC publishes two production numbers: one that countries submit directly, and another that’s based on an average of external consultants and media outlets known as “secondary sources.”
Just before the war, OPEC’s secondary sources assessed UAE output at 3.39 million barrels a day, while the IEA assessed the country at 3.64 million a day.
OPEC’s secondary sources also pegged the UAE’s June output at 3.8 million, but with a slightly smaller increase of 76% compared with June.
OPEC trimmed estimates for oil demand growth in 2026 to 800,000 barrels a day, representing an increase of 0.7% from 2025.
Despite the downgrade, it’s still significantly more bullish than many other forecasters like the IEA, which projects that world consumption will decline by 1 million barrels a day this year because of the war’s impact.
OPEC leader Saudi Arabia also managed an output recovery in June, though not to the same scale as its neighbor, according to the report. The kingdom said that its production increased by 561,000 barrels a day to 7.122 million a day. It reported a figure for supply to market — which excludes movements into storage — at 6.637 million barrels a day.
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